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What midlife factors drive cardiometabolic multimorbidity?

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In 8,270 Whitehall II adults followed ~24 years, clinical risk at 50 best predicted first cardiometabolic disease, while socioeconomic and behavioural factors better predicted progression to multimorbidity and death.

Source

Clinical, socioeconomic, and behavioural factors at age 50 years and risk of cardiometabolic multimorbidity and mortality: A cohort study

Singh-Manoux A, Fayosse A, Sabia S, et al. · PLoS medicine · 2018

doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002571Read the full paper ↗189 citationscc by

Study at a glance

Design
Cohort — Midlife clinical, socioeconomic, and behavioural factors vs later cardiometabolic disease, multimorbidity, and death
N
N=8270 · Mean 23.7 years of follow-up; 2,501 developed a cardiometabolic disease
Population
Adults assessed around age 50 and followed for cardiometabolic outcomes
Outcome
Incident cardiometabolic disease, multimorbidity, and mortality

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What midlife factors drive cardiometabolic multimorbidity?

These passages occur verbatim in the stored paper text. They support the points listed below; they do not verify every statement in the explanation.

Cohort included 8,270 adults with mean 23.7 years of follow-up.

Data on 8,270 men and women were drawn from the Whitehall II cohort study, with mean follow-up of 23.7 years (1985 to 2017).

2,501 developed one disease, 511 multimorbidity, and 1,406 died.

A total of 2,501 participants developed 1 of the 3 cardiometabolic diseases, 511 developed cardiometabolic multimorbidity, and 1,406 died.
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What they did

Assessed clinical, socioeconomic, and behavioural risk scales at age 50 in the Whitehall II cohort and modelled transitions from healthy → first cardiometabolic disease → multimorbidity → death over mean 23.7 years.

What they found

2,501 developed one cardiometabolic disease, 511 multimorbidity, and 1,406 died. Least vs most favourable clinical profile predicted first disease (HR 3.74). Socioeconomic and behavioural factors predicted multimorbidity progression; only behavioural factors predicted mortality after disease.

The limits

What it doesn't show

Observational Whitehall II data cannot prove causality; findings are midlife risk scales in UK civil servants and may not generalize to all populations or non-cardiometabolic multimorbidity.

Key terms

Cardiometabolic multimorbidity
At least 2 of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke in the same person.
Whitehall II
Longitudinal UK civil-servant cohort used here with decades of follow-up.
Clinical profile
Midlife hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, overweight/obesity, and family history scored together.
Occupational position
Socioeconomic marker used as one of three midlife risk scales.
Behavioural factors
Smoking, alcohol, diet, and physical activity scored at age 50.
Hazard ratio
Relative instantaneous risk comparing least vs most favourable midlife profiles.

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Whitehall II analytic N was about:

Common questions

How large was the cohort?

8,270 men and women with mean 23.7 years of follow-up.

How was multimorbidity defined?

At least 2 of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke.

What best predicted first disease?

Midlife clinical profile (HR 3.74 for least vs most favourable).

What predicted death after disease?

Only midlife behavioural factors (e.g., HR 3.47 with multimorbidity).