Ice sheets
How Bølling warming and ice saddles fed MWP1a
Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC
North American ice-sheet ensembles show saddle collapse and Bølling warming can supply several meters of Meltwater Pulse 1a in 340 years.
How this study connects
Role on claims
Each row is a claim on a concept or method page where this paper supports, challenges, or qualifies the statement. Roles are hand-checked — not a model guess.
Not every 'ensemble' in the index is a climate GCM. Six hundred three Glimmer-CISM ice-sheet experiments mixed FAMOUS and CCSM3 climates; a COPRA age-model ensemble on a Belize speleothem measured seasonal predictability, not atmospheric initial-condition spread. Those are ensembles of a different model class.
Evidence for the claim as stated.
Study at a glance
- Design
- Computational / modelling — Glimmer-CISM North American deglaciation ensembles forced by FAMOUS and CCSM3 climates
- N
- N=603 · 603 deglaciation experiments; 340-year Meltwater Pulse 1a windows
- Population
- Cordilleran–Laurentide ice-sheet model ensemble
- Outcome
- Ice-saddle collapse plus Bølling warming can supply several meters of Meltwater Pulse 1a sea-level rise in 340 years
Structured fields used in claim comparison tables when every cited study has a complete layer.
Inspect source passages
How Bølling warming and ice saddles fed MWP1a
These passages occur verbatim in the stored paper text. They support the points listed below; they do not verify every statement in the explanation.
Each forcing used 201 experiments, 603 simulations in total.
For each climate forcing (Fabs, Cabs, and Cano), we ran a perturbed physics parameter ensemble of 201 experiments, 603 simulations in total.
Why can’t FAMOUS assess Bølling melt?
The F‐21k (Fabs) forcing does not include a Bølling warming signal and so cannot be used to assess the climate event's influence on North American ice sheet evolution.
Key findings
Saddle collapse alone yields 5.7–11.0 m of GMSL in 340 years, but too late unless Bølling warming helps. When Bølling triggers separation, North America contributes about 5–6 m; if already separated, only about 3–4 m.
Methodology
Authors ran 603 Glimmer-CISM deglaciation experiments forced by FAMOUS and CCSM3 climates, selected geologically plausible members, and measured 340-year melt pulses from Cordilleran–Laurentide separation versus Bølling warming.
Limitations
Shallow-ice physics omits marine instability and ice streams; FAMOUS has no Bølling; CCSM3 ice-mask steps required discarding some melt spikes; Antarctic sources are not modeled here.
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