Ocean acidification
Warming and acidification squeeze coral habitat
Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC
Modeled coral-reef suitability falls about 27–30% in shallow water by 2070, worst in the Western Pacific Warm Pool.
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Warming and acidification squeeze coral habitat
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77% of presence cells had suitability above 0.5 in 2010, falling to 66% in 2040 and 54% by 2070.
falls from 77% in 2010 to 66% in 2040 and 54% by 2070 (BRT OPT projections)
Which two machine-learning methods?
Boosted Regression Trees (BRT
Key findings
Presence-cell suitability above 0.5 fell from 77% in 2010 to 54% by 2070; SST maxima dominate the loss; acidification alone is milder; Indian Ocean and Atlantic reefs fare better than the Coral Triangle.
Methodology
Trained MaxEnt and boosted-regression-tree envelopes at 1° resolution, then projected SST and aragonite saturation separately and together from 2010 to 2070 under A2, A1B, and B1 emissions.
Limitations
Does not simulate bleaching physiology, local pollution, or thermal adaptation of individual coral species.
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