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public-health

How strong is the evidence that secondhand smoke harms health?

Flor LS, Anderson JA, Ahmad N, et al. · Nature medicine · 2024

Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC

Across 410 studies, SHS linked to all nine outcomes; conservative floors were ~8% higher IHD, 5% stroke, and 1% each for T2D and lung cancer (two-star evidence).

Study at a glance

Design
Meta-analysis / systematic review — Burden of Proof Risk Function systematic review/meta-analysis of SHS vs nine outcomes
N
N=410 · 410 publications with SHS relative risks after screening 7,109+ records
Population
Observational studies of secondhand smoke exposure and selected diseases
Outcome
Conservative risk increases and star-rated evidence strength for nine outcomes

Structured fields used in claim comparison tables when every cited study has a complete layer.

Key findings

All nine outcomes associated with SHS. Conservatively, SHS raises IHD ≥~8%, stroke ≥~5%, type 2 diabetes ≥~1%, lung cancer ≥~1% (two stars). Otitis media, asthma, lower respiratory infections, breast cancer, and COPD had weaker one-star evidence. Pooled RR examples include IHD 1.26 and stroke 1.16.

Methodology

Systematically reviewed literature to July 2022 (7,109 unique records plus citation mining), retained 410 publications with SHS relative risks, pooled associations with Burden of Proof Risk Function methods, and star-rated evidence strength.

Limitations

Weak star ratings mean residual confounding/bias remain plausible; dichotomous SHS exposure simplifies real intensity/duration.

How this study connects

Role on claims

Each row is a claim on a concept or method page where this paper supports, challenges, or qualifies the statement. Roles are hand-checked — not a model guess.

  • QualifiesTobacco smoke exposureconcept

    Even low-intensity maternal smoking raises preterm-birth odds; quitting before pregnancy looks like never-smoking risk.

    US birth-certificate analyses showed first-trimester smoking of 1–2 to ≥20 cigarettes/day associated with ORs ~1.31–1.53 for preterm birth; low-intensity smoking in either trimester still increased risk, while quitting before pregnancy tracked with never-smoker risk.

    Scope note — SHS Burden of Proof is environmental exposure in non-smokers — not maternal active-smoking dose on birth certificates

    Limits the claim's scope: a different population, assay, or outcome.

  • SupportsTobacco smoke exposureconcept

    Conservative Burden of Proof methods still link SHS to multiple adult/child outcomes.

    A Burden of Proof synthesis associated SHS with nine outcomes; conservative floors included ≥~8% higher IHD, ≥~5% stroke, and smaller but positive floors for type 2 diabetes and lung cancer (two-star ratings), with additional child respiratory and other endpoints.

    Evidence for the claim as stated.

  • SupportsTobacco smoke exposureconcept

    Maternal cigarette dose and preterm birth odds vs Conservative SHS relative-risk floors across outcomes vs Active smoking across CVD subtypes

    Evidence for the claim as stated.

Open questions

Tensions this paper is part of

From concept pages' “where studies disagree.” Disagreement means the same question; scope means different assays, populations, or outcomes.

Related papers in this topic

Same topic cluster — not a recommendation engine.