Climate impacts
2018 drought wilted about 11% of Central European forests
Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC
The 2018 heat-and-drought summer triggered early wilting on about 11% of Central European forest area, worst in Germany and Czechia, with greening still reduced the next spring.
How this study connects
Role on claims
Each row is a claim on a concept or method page where this paper supports, challenges, or qualifies the statement. Roles are hand-checked — not a model guess.
The same method label also covers satellite NDVI time series. Random-forest maps trained on >300,000 classified orthophoto pixels plus NDVI found 2018 early wilting over about 21,524 km² (10.8% of Central European forest). Precipitation (negative) and temperature (positive) anomalies ranked among the top drivers. Wilted patches stayed less green in spring 2019 (NDVI gap +0.015 versus unaffected forest). The models explained 35–42% of deviance.
Evidence for the claim as stated.
The 2018 forest-wilting paper is an NDVI/climate time series, not a health Poisson model. Early wilting of 10.8% of forest and a spring-2019 NDVI gap of +0.015 answer a drought-impact question. That is a real disagreement of scientific target under the same method heading, not a second admissions estimate.
Evidence for the claim as stated.
Open questions
Tensions this paper is part of
From concept pages' “where studies disagree.” Disagreement means the same question; scope means different assays, populations, or outcomes.
The 2018 forest-wilting paper is an NDVI/climate time series, not a health Poisson model. Early wilting of 10.8% of forest and a spring-2019 NDVI gap of +0.015 answer a drought-impact question. That is a real disagreement of scientific target under the same method heading, not a second admissions estimate.
Study at a glance
- Design
- Other — Remote-sensing map of 2018 early wilting from >300,000 classified pixels plus NDVI
- N
- ~21,524 km² (~10.8%) of mapped Central European forest; pixel-based map, not a person/tree cohort N
- Population
- Central European forest canopies in the 2018 extreme drought
- Outcome
- Spatial extent and climate drivers of early wilting and lingering 2019 greenness loss
Structured fields used in claim comparison tables when every cited study has a complete layer.
Inspect source passages
2018 drought wilted about 11% of Central European forests
These passages occur verbatim in the stored paper text. They support the points listed below; they do not verify every statement in the explanation.
Early wilting was present in about 11% of investigated Central European forests.
Early wilting was present in about 11% of the Central European forests investigated.
May/June NDVI difference increased by 0.015 from 2018 to 2019 for wilted versus non-wilted patches.
On average, the May/June NDVI difference between forest patches affected by early wilting and non‐affected patches increased by 0.015 from 2018 to 2019.
Key findings
Early wilting covered about 21,524 km² (10.8% of forest). Precipitation (negative) and temperature (positive) anomalies ranked among the top drivers. Wilted patches stayed less green in spring 2019 (NDVI gap +0.015 versus unaffected forest).
Methodology
Authors trained random-forest models on >300,000 visually classified orthophoto pixels plus NDVI time series to map early wilting, then related patterns to 2018 climate anomalies, site factors, and May/June 2019 greenness.
Limitations
The map does not separate tree species mortality from reversible leaf browning, and 35–42% of deviance explained means many local factors remain unmeasured.
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