Floods
Compound coastal storms become more common by 2100
Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC
Heavy rain and storm-driven high seas already coincide far more than by chance, and that pairing is projected to increase along most coasts.
How this study connects
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Discoveries this paper informs or conflicts with
- Storm surge and heavy rain arrive together far more often than independence assumes
This paper informs this development.
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Compound coastal storms become more common by 2100
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The global median return period of 17 years is roughly 20 times more likely than independence.
The global median return period of 17 years shows that in the majority of coastlines around the world, ocean and inland meteorological extremes are strongly correlated and roughly 20 times more likely to co-occur compared to if they were independent.
Under RCP8.5, drivers co-occur more frequently along 60% of the global coastline by 2100.
Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the meteorological drivers of compound flooding are projected to co-occur more frequently along 60% of the global coastline by the end of this century (Fig.
Key findings
Present-day median joint return period is 17 years (~20× more likely than independence at 365 years). Under RCP8.5, drivers co-occur more often along 60% of coasts; global median return period falls 20% (events 26% more probable). North of 40°N, frequency averages 2.6× present (ΔT = −61%). Precipitation changes explain 77% of the frequency shift.
Methodology
Using ERA-Interim (1980–2014) and six CMIP5 models, the authors fitted copulas to 3-day precipitation and meteorological tide (surge plus 0.2× wave height) along the global coastline, then compared 1970–2004 with 2070–2099 under RCP8.5.
Limitations
The analysis excludes large river catchments and mean sea-level rise. Only six CMIP5 models and ~100 km coastal spacing. Meteorological tide omits full inundation modelling. Dependence change is small compared with marginal precipitation change.
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