Floods
Compound coastal storms become more common by 2100
Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC
Heavy rain and storm-driven high seas already coincide far more than by chance, and that pairing is projected to increase along most coasts.
Key findings
Present-day median joint return period is 17 years (~20× more likely than independence at 365 years). Under RCP8.5, drivers co-occur more often along 60% of coasts; global median return period falls 20% (events 26% more probable). North of 40°N, frequency averages 2.6× present (ΔT = −61%). Precipitation changes explain 77% of the frequency shift.
Methodology
Using ERA-Interim (1980–2014) and six CMIP5 models, the authors fitted copulas to 3-day precipitation and meteorological tide (surge plus 0.2× wave height) along the global coastline, then compared 1970–2004 with 2070–2099 under RCP8.5.
Limitations
The analysis excludes large river catchments and mean sea-level rise. Only six CMIP5 models and ~100 km coastal spacing. Meteorological tide omits full inundation modelling. Dependence change is small compared with marginal precipitation change.
How this study connects
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