Health behaviour
Do ensemble COVID forecasts beat single models?
Open access · cc0 · source: Europe PMC
Over 52 weeks and 32 European countries, a weekly multi-model ensemble beat most component models for cases and deaths, with median combining outperforming means.
Study at a glance
- Design
- Computational / modelling — European COVID-19 Forecast Hub multi-model ensemble evaluation over 52 weeks
- N
- N=48 · 48 unique contributing models; forecasts for 32 countries
- Population
- National COVID-19 case and death time series across 32 European countries
- Outcome
- Relative forecast accuracy (WIS) of ensemble vs component models for cases and deaths
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Key findings
48 models contributed; the ensemble beat 83% of models on cases and 91% on deaths. Case skill fell with longer horizons while death forecasts stayed stabler; median ensembles beat mean ensembles.
Methodology
Built the European COVID-19 Forecast Hub collecting weekly 1–4 week case/death forecasts from many teams, forming an equally weighted ensemble (mean then median) and scoring with relative WIS.
Limitations
Better short-term forecasts do not automatically prescribe optimal NPIs, and past performance weighting did not reliably improve the ensemble further.
How this study connects
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