Extreme events
Future Floyd–Florence rains could jump sharply
Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC
A design-rainfall method applied to three historic tropical cyclones projects large late-century increases in eastern North Carolina extreme rain.
Study at a glance
- Design
- Computational / modelling — Design-rainfall scaling of Floyd, Matthew, and Florence onto future WRF-downscaled climates
- N
- N=3 · Three historic tropical cyclones; CESM and GFDL-CM3 RCP scenarios for 2025–2054 and 2070–2099
- Population
- Extreme tropical-cyclone rainfall over eastern North Carolina
- Outcome
- Projected late-century increases in storm totals and maximum intensities
Structured fields used in claim comparison tables when every cited study has a complete layer.
Key findings
Under CESM RCP4.5, ‘2100’ storm totals rise 22–41% while maximum intensities jump ~89–130% (Florence MI to 1535 mm). Coastal-plain cells see the largest rare-event increases; some inland RCP8.5 cells even decrease. Mean 3-day increases of 24–39% exceed many statistically downscaled estimates.
Methodology
Authors mapped PRISM rainfall from Hurricanes Floyd, Matthew, and Florence onto Atlas 14 return periods, then scaled each grid cell by changes in precipitation frequency between 2025–2054 and 2070–2099 from WRF-downscaled CESM and GFDL-CM3 RCP scenarios.
Limitations
Atlas 14 omits later storms so return periods may be too rare; 36 km WRF is coarse for TCs; the method does not simulate future storm genesis, tracks, or surge compounding.
How this study connects
Role on claims
Each row is a claim on a concept or method page where this paper supports, challenges, or qualifies the statement. Roles are hand-checked — not a model guess.
PRISM rain from Hurricanes Floyd, Matthew and Florence, scaled by WRF-downscaled CESM and GFDL-CM3 changes in precipitation frequency, gives CESM RCP4.5 ‘2100’ storm totals 22–41% higher and maximum intensities ~89–130% higher (Florence MI to 1535 mm). Mean 3-day increases of 24–39% exceed many statistically downscaled estimates. Coastal-plain cells see the largest rare-event jumps; some inland RCP8.5 cells even decrease. Atlas 14 omits later storms; 36 km WRF does not simulate future genesis, tracks or surge.
Evidence for the claim as stated.
Dynamical and statistical mappings of the same warming do not produce the same storm totals. WRF-downscaled CESM/GFDL 3-day increases of 24–39% exceed many statistically downscaled estimates, while some inland RCP8.5 cells even dry. HighResMIP HR and LR twins disagree on the sign of 1979–2014 GBM PRCPTOT (+5% versus −2%). Finer is not automatically wetter, and a nested RCM is not interchangeable with a global high-resolution GCM.
Evidence for the claim as stated.
Open questions
Tensions this paper is part of
From concept pages' “where studies disagree.” Disagreement means the same question; scope means different assays, populations, or outcomes.
Dynamical and statistical mappings of the same warming do not produce the same storm totals. WRF-downscaled CESM/GFDL 3-day increases of 24–39% exceed many statistically downscaled estimates, while some inland RCP8.5 cells even dry. HighResMIP HR and LR twins disagree on the sign of 1979–2014 GBM PRCPTOT (+5% versus −2%). Finer is not automatically wetter, and a nested RCM is not interchangeable with a global high-resolution GCM.
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