Health behaviour
Did India’s tobacco epidemic peak and recede?
Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC
Across NFHS rounds, age-standardized tobacco use in Indian men rose 32% from 1998-99 to 2005-06 (27.90% to 36.81%) then fell 26% by 2015-16 (to 27.31%), while women’s use declined throughout—yet 2015-16 levels still looked like 1998-99, with huge state gaps.
How this study connects
Role on claims
Each row is a claim on a concept or method page where this paper supports, challenges, or qualifies the statement. Roles are hand-checked — not a model guess.
India’s tobacco epidemic rose then fell for men while women declined, with huge state gaps and smokeless still common.
NFHS rounds showed age-standardized male tobacco use rising 32% from 1998–99 to 2005–06 (27.90% to 36.81%) then falling 26% by 2015–16 (to 27.31%); women’s use declined throughout. By 2015–16 male smoking was 12.20% and smokeless 15.12%, with male smoking from 5.71% (Maharashtra) to 37.70% (Mizoram).
Evidence for the claim as stated.
National NFHS time trends, LASI occupational SLT prevalence, and smoked-tobacco CVD relative risks describe different products, ages, and outcomes.
Evidence for the claim as stated.
Open questions
Tensions this paper is part of
From concept pages' “where studies disagree.” Disagreement means the same question; scope means different assays, populations, or outcomes.
National NFHS time trends, LASI occupational SLT prevalence, and smoked-tobacco CVD relative risks describe different products, ages, and outcomes.
History
When this study was placed
Dated entries from the concept change log — when this paper was added or removed as support, challenge, or qualifier on a claim.
Placed as supporting evidence on Tobacco smoke exposure
NFHS rounds showed age-standardized male tobacco use rising 32% from 1998–99 to 2005–06 (27.90% to 36.81%) then falling 26% by 2015–16 (to 27.31%); women’s use declined throughout. By 2015–16 male smoking was 12.20% and smokeless 15.12%, with male smoking from 5.71% (Maharashtra) to 37.70% (Mizoram).
Placed as supporting evidence on Tobacco smoke exposure
National NFHS time trends, LASI occupational SLT prevalence, and smoked-tobacco CVD relative risks describe different products, ages, and outcomes.
Study at a glance
- Design
- Cross-sectional — Repeated nationally representative NFHS-2/3/4 household surveys (1998–2016) with age-standardized smoking and smokeless tobacco prevalence for ages 15–49 by sex and state
- N
- N=601509 · NFHS-4 interviewed 601,509 households (2015-16); NFHS-2 91,196; NFHS-3 109,041; analysis of men and women aged 15–49
- Population
- Indian men and women aged 15–49 in 27 states and two union territories covering 99% of the population
- Outcome
- Age-standardized prevalence of any tobacco, smoking, and smokeless tobacco, nationally and by state, 1998–2016
Structured fields used in claim comparison tables when every cited study has a complete layer.
Inspect source passages
Did India’s tobacco epidemic peak and recede?
These passages occur verbatim in the stored paper text. They support the points listed below; they do not verify every statement in the explanation.
Men’s age-standardized tobacco use rose 32% from 27.90% to 36.81% (1998-99 to 2005-06).
The age-standardized tobacco use prevalence among men in India increased by 32% between 1998 and 99 and 2005-06 (from 27.90 to 36.81%)
It then declined 26% to 27.31% by 2015–2016.
declined by 26% between 2005 and 06 and 2015–2016 (from 36.81 to 27.31%)
Key findings
National use rose then fell for men, declined throughout for women. By 2015-16 male smoking was 12.20% and smokeless 15.12%; female smoking 0.40% and smokeless 2.87%. Male smoking ranged from 5.71% (Maharashtra) to 37.70% (Mizoram).
Methodology
Used NFHS-2/3/4 (91,196; 109,041; 601,509 households) to age-standardize smoking and smokeless prevalence for ages 15–49 in 27 states and 2 union territories covering 99% of India.
Limitations
Repeated cross-sections cannot prove which policies caused the drop; self-report undercounts, ages 15–49 miss older users, and 2015-16 prevalence remaining near 1998-99 warns against declaring the epidemic over.
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