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How Bølling warming and ice saddles fed MWP1a

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North American ice-sheet ensembles show saddle collapse and Bølling warming can supply several meters of Meltwater Pulse 1a in 340 years.

Source

Abrupt Bølling warming and ice saddle collapse contributions to the Meltwater Pulse 1a rapid sea level rise

Gregoire LJ, Otto-Bliesner B, Valdes PJ, et al. · Geophysical research letters · 2016

doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070356Read the full paper ↗6 citationscc by

What they did

Authors ran 603 Glimmer-CISM deglaciation experiments forced by FAMOUS and CCSM3 climates, selected geologically plausible members, and measured 340-year melt pulses from Cordilleran–Laurentide separation versus Bølling warming.

What they found

Saddle collapse alone yields 5.7–11.0 m of GMSL in 340 years, but too late unless Bølling warming helps. When Bølling triggers separation, North America contributes about 5–6 m; if already separated, only about 3–4 m.

The limits

What it doesn't show

Shallow-ice physics omits marine instability and ice streams; FAMOUS has no Bølling; CCSM3 ice-mask steps required discarding some melt spikes; Antarctic sources are not modeled here.

Key terms

Meltwater Pulse 1a
Rapid ~14–18 m sea-level rise in <340 years around 14.6 ka.
Saddle collapse
Accelerated melt when the Cordilleran and Laurentide ice sheets separate.
Bølling warming
Abrupt Northern Hemisphere warming near 14.6 ka.
Glimmer-CISM
3-D thermodynamic ice-sheet model used for the ensembles.
Anomaly forcing
GCM climate applied as anomalies to reduce present-day bias (Cano).

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MWP1a coral-record size cited:

Common questions

How big is MWP1a in the coral records cited?

14–18 m of GMSL in less than 340 years at 14.6 ka.

Saddle-collapse pulse size in Fabs?

5.7–11.0 m GMSL in 340 years.

Bølling-only contribution if ice sheets already split?

About 3–4 m in 340 years.

How many simulations were run?

603 (201 per climate forcing).

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