How big is the ovarian cancer burden in China, and where is it heading?
GBD 2019 estimates show China’s ovarian cancer prevalence/incidence/mortality ASRs rose sharply since 1990, with ~196k cases in 2019 and projected faster growth than the global average to 2030.
Source
Burden of ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2030: A systematic analysis and comparison with the global level
What they did
They pulled GBD 2019 OC metrics for China, analyzed age/year patterns with joinpoint and Bayesian age-period-cohort models, ranked risk factors, and projected burden through 2030.
What they found
Large absolute burden in 2019; ASRs up ~106%/79%/59% for prevalence/incidence/mortality since 1990; acceleration 2016–2019; worse burden after age 40; high fasting glucose top risk, then high BMI.
The limits
What it doesn't show
Modeled GBD estimates are not a primary registry census and projections depend on model assumptions.
Key terms
- Ovarian cancer (OC)
- Malignancy of the ovary; major women’s cancer burden.
- GBD 2019
- Global Burden of Disease Study providing comparable disease metrics.
- ASR
- Age-standardized rate allowing fairer comparisons over time.
- DALY
- Disability-adjusted life year combining death and disability.
- Joinpoint analysis
- Method detecting changes in trend slopes over time.
- High fasting plasma glucose
- Leading attributed risk factor for OC burden in China here.
Flashcards
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Quiz yourself
2019 prevalent cases ~:
Common questions
2019 China burden?
~196k cases, 45k new, 29k deaths.
ASR increases since 1990?
Prevalence +105.98%; incidence +79.19%; mortality +58.93%.
Who is hit hardest?
Women >40, especially postmenopausal/older.
Top risks?
High fasting glucose; then high BMI (ahead of asbestos).
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