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China’s planted forests net far less than natural ones

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After water, land, and management costs, afforestation’s net ecosystem-service value is 55.9% lower per hectare than natural forest.

Source

Difference in the net value of ecological services between natural and artificial forests in China

Cao S, Zhang J, Su W · Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2019

doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13293Read the full paper ↗4 citationscc by

Study at a glance

Design
Qualitative / archival — National forest-inventory ecosystem-service values minus timber, land, water, and management costs
N
China forest inventories 1952–2014; 69.2×10^6 ha natural and 147.9×10^6 ha planted forest in 2014
Population
China’s natural versus planted forests
Outcome
After water, land, and management costs, afforestation’s net ecosystem-service value is 55.9% lower per hectare than natural forest

Structured fields used in claim comparison tables when every cited study has a complete layer.

Inspect source passages

China’s planted forests net far less than natural ones

These passages occur verbatim in the stored paper text. They support the points listed below; they do not verify every statement in the explanation.

Natural and artificial forests covered 69.2×10^6 and 147.9×10^6 ha in 2014

China's natural and artificial forests covered 69.2 × 10 6 and 147.9

Accounting for costs made annual NVES 35.9% less than gross VES

which is 35.9% less than the value calculated without accounting for costs.
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What they did

Authors combined published forest ecosystem-service values with timber, land-rent, water (evapotranspiration), and pest/fire-control costs to compute net value of ecosystem services (NVES) for China’s natural versus planted forests, using 1952–2014 inventory and provincial water prices.

What they found

In 2014 natural forests covered 69.2×10^6 ha and planted forests 147.9×10^6 ha, with total VES Ɏ9.6×10^12. Accounting for costs cut national NVES 35.9% to Ɏ6.1×10^12. Afforestation netted Ɏ15.9×10^3 ha−1, 55.9% less than natural forest. Only 20.6% of 3.4×10^6 km2 planted since 1952 still survived. Twelve provinces had negative planted-forest NVES.

The limits

What it doesn't show

Water prices were linearly interpolated between Beijing and Tibet, not market observations everywhere. Survival of natural forest was assumed 100%. Timber harvest is largely prohibited, so timber income is a hypothetical add-on. The analysis is provincial, not stand-scale.

Key terms

VES
Gross value of ecosystem services (water, carbon, soil, biodiversity, etc.) before costs.
NVES
VES minus direct conservation costs, opportunity costs (land and water), and risk (pest/fire) costs.
Opportunity cost of water
Value of water consumed by forest evapotranspiration that could have been used elsewhere, especially in arid provinces.
Afforestation survival
Existing planted-forest area divided by cumulative area planted; 20.6% by 2014.
Natural forest conservation
Protecting existing forests rather than planting new ones; here it produced higher NVES.

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Quiz yourself

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After costs, national forest NVES was about:

Common questions

Is planted forest worthless on a gross VES basis?

No. Per-hectare VES was similar (43.2 vs 46.1 ×10^3). Costs, especially water and land, drive the gap.

Where was planted-forest NVES negative?

Arid northwest plus heavily developed Bohai Gulf and Changjiang Estuary regions—12 provinces.

Does adding timber sales close the gap?

Only +9.6% for planted and +3.5% for natural NVES; harvest is mostly illegal anyway.

What management lesson follows?

Conserving natural forests beat large-scale afforestation on net benefits in this accounting.

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