Rome NO2 maps 12 years apart still predict deaths
Land-use regression NO2 surfaces for Rome in 1995/96 and 2007 were highly correlated, and both predicted higher natural-cause mortality in a 2001–2006 adult cohort.
Source
Nitrogen dioxide levels estimated from land use regression models several years apart and association with mortality in a large cohort study
Study at a glance
- Design
- Cohort — Rome adult cohort with Cox mortality models using 1995/96 and 2007 LUR NO2 maps
- N
- N=684204 · 684,204 subjects; 45,006 natural-cause deaths 2001–2006
- Population
- Adult residents of Rome with geocoded residential addresses
- Outcome
- Natural-cause mortality associated with residential NO2 from two LUR surfaces
Structured fields used in claim comparison tables when every cited study has a complete layer.
What they did
Authors built two LUR models from NO2 campaigns (70 school sites in 1995/96; 78 Ogawa sites in 2007), compared measurements and predictions, and ran Cox models of natural mortality on residential NO2.
What they found
Measured NO2 in the two campaigns correlated at 0.79 (0.83 background, 0.68 traffic). Highest versus lowest NO2 quintile had HR 1.10 (1995/96 map) and 1.11 (2007 map). 45,006 natural deaths occurred in the cohort.
The limits
What it doesn't show
Stable spatial ranking does not mean concentrations were unchanged, and Cox models on modeled NO2 cannot prove that NO2 rather than co-pollutants caused deaths.
Key terms
- Land-use regression (LUR)
- Model predicting air pollution from nearby land use, traffic, and geography.
- NO2
- Nitrogen dioxide, a traffic-related gaseous pollutant used as an exposure marker.
- Spatial stability
- Whether intra-urban pollution contrasts keep the same ranking over years.
- Natural-cause mortality
- Deaths with ICD-9 < 800, excluding injuries.
- Ogawa sampler
- Passive badge used to measure NO2 at 78 sites in 2007.
Flashcards
Research intelligence for this paper
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Quiz yourself
12-year NO2 measurement correlation in Rome:
Common questions
How far apart were the NO2 campaigns?
About 12 years (1995/96 vs 2007).
Did spatial pattern hold?
Yes—Pearson r = 0.79 between measurements.
Mortality finding?
HR about 1.10–1.11 for top vs bottom NO2 quintile.
Can an old LUR be used later?
Here, yes enough for ranking/mortality, with some traffic-site disagreement.
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