Air pollution
Rome NO2 maps 12 years apart still predict deaths
Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC
Land-use regression NO2 surfaces for Rome in 1995/96 and 2007 were highly correlated, and both predicted higher natural-cause mortality in a 2001–2006 adult cohort.
Study at a glance
- Design
- Cohort — Rome adult cohort with Cox mortality models using 1995/96 and 2007 LUR NO2 maps
- N
- N=684204 · 684,204 subjects; 45,006 natural-cause deaths 2001–2006
- Population
- Adult residents of Rome with geocoded residential addresses
- Outcome
- Natural-cause mortality associated with residential NO2 from two LUR surfaces
Structured fields used in claim comparison tables when every cited study has a complete layer.
Key findings
Measured NO2 in the two campaigns correlated at 0.79 (0.83 background, 0.68 traffic). Highest versus lowest NO2 quintile had HR 1.10 (1995/96 map) and 1.11 (2007 map). 45,006 natural deaths occurred in the cohort.
Methodology
Authors built two LUR models from NO2 campaigns (70 school sites in 1995/96; 78 Ogawa sites in 2007), compared measurements and predictions, and ran Cox models of natural mortality on residential NO2.
Limitations
Stable spatial ranking does not mean concentrations were unchanged, and Cox models on modeled NO2 cannot prove that NO2 rather than co-pollutants caused deaths.
How this study connects
Role on claims
Each row is a claim on a concept or method page where this paper supports, challenges, or qualifies the statement. Roles are hand-checked — not a model guess.
Land-use regression NO2 surfaces for Rome in 1995/96 and 2007 were highly correlated, and both predicted higher natural-cause mortality in a 2001–2006 adult cohort.
Evidence for the claim as stated.
Rome’s two NO₂ LUR maps, twelve years apart, still ranked neighbourhoods similarly enough to predict deaths. Campaign measurements correlated at 0.79 (0.83 background, 0.68 traffic). Highest versus lowest predicted-NO₂ quintile had HR 1.10 on the 1995/96 map and 1.11 on the 2007 map, among 45,006 natural deaths. Stable ranking is not a claim that levels were the same.
Evidence for the claim as stated.
These papers do not agree on which traffic-related layer carries the signal. Rome’s analysis is built on NO₂ LUR as the exposure; the neurologic cohort finds air pollution associated with some diagnoses and not others, with greenness attenuating and noise mostly null; the LA preterm paper’s PAH signal is limited by two stations and shorter sampling. Treating 'LUR showed pollution is bad' as a single result hides those splits.
Evidence for the claim as stated.
Open questions
Tensions this paper is part of
From concept pages' “where studies disagree.” Disagreement means the same question; scope means different assays, populations, or outcomes.
These papers do not agree on which traffic-related layer carries the signal. Rome’s analysis is built on NO₂ LUR as the exposure; the neurologic cohort finds air pollution associated with some diagnoses and not others, with greenness attenuating and noise mostly null; the LA preterm paper’s PAH signal is limited by two stations and shorter sampling. Treating 'LUR showed pollution is bad' as a single result hides those splits.
Related papers in this topic
Same topic cluster — not a recommendation engine.