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Air pollution

Rome NO2 maps 12 years apart still predict deaths

Cesaroni G, Porta D, Badaloni C, et al. · Environmental health : a global access science source · 2012

Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC

Land-use regression NO2 surfaces for Rome in 1995/96 and 2007 were highly correlated, and both predicted higher natural-cause mortality in a 2001–2006 adult cohort.

Study at a glance

Design
Cohort — Rome adult cohort with Cox mortality models using 1995/96 and 2007 LUR NO2 maps
N
N=684204 · 684,204 subjects; 45,006 natural-cause deaths 2001–2006
Population
Adult residents of Rome with geocoded residential addresses
Outcome
Natural-cause mortality associated with residential NO2 from two LUR surfaces

Structured fields used in claim comparison tables when every cited study has a complete layer.

Key findings

Measured NO2 in the two campaigns correlated at 0.79 (0.83 background, 0.68 traffic). Highest versus lowest NO2 quintile had HR 1.10 (1995/96 map) and 1.11 (2007 map). 45,006 natural deaths occurred in the cohort.

Methodology

Authors built two LUR models from NO2 campaigns (70 school sites in 1995/96; 78 Ogawa sites in 2007), compared measurements and predictions, and ran Cox models of natural mortality on residential NO2.

Limitations

Stable spatial ranking does not mean concentrations were unchanged, and Cox models on modeled NO2 cannot prove that NO2 rather than co-pollutants caused deaths.

How this study connects

Role on claims

Each row is a claim on a concept or method page where this paper supports, challenges, or qualifies the statement. Roles are hand-checked — not a model guess.

  • SupportsAir pollutionconcept

    Land-use regression NO2 surfaces for Rome in 1995/96 and 2007 were highly correlated, and both predicted higher natural-cause mortality in a 2001–2006 adult cohort.

    Evidence for the claim as stated.

  • SupportsLand-Use Regressionmethod

    Rome’s two NO₂ LUR maps, twelve years apart, still ranked neighbourhoods similarly enough to predict deaths. Campaign measurements correlated at 0.79 (0.83 background, 0.68 traffic). Highest versus lowest predicted-NO₂ quintile had HR 1.10 on the 1995/96 map and 1.11 on the 2007 map, among 45,006 natural deaths. Stable ranking is not a claim that levels were the same.

    Evidence for the claim as stated.

  • SupportsLand-Use Regressionmethod

    These papers do not agree on which traffic-related layer carries the signal. Rome’s analysis is built on NO₂ LUR as the exposure; the neurologic cohort finds air pollution associated with some diagnoses and not others, with greenness attenuating and noise mostly null; the LA preterm paper’s PAH signal is limited by two stations and shorter sampling. Treating 'LUR showed pollution is bad' as a single result hides those splits.

    Evidence for the claim as stated.

Open questions

Tensions this paper is part of

From concept pages' “where studies disagree.” Disagreement means the same question; scope means different assays, populations, or outcomes.

  • Scope difference — different assays, populations, or outcomes

    These papers do not agree on which traffic-related layer carries the signal. Rome’s analysis is built on NO₂ LUR as the exposure; the neurologic cohort finds air pollution associated with some diagnoses and not others, with greenness attenuating and noise mostly null; the LA preterm paper’s PAH signal is limited by two stations and shorter sampling. Treating 'LUR showed pollution is bad' as a single result hides those splits.

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Same topic cluster — not a recommendation engine.