Paleoclimate
Late Tang hydroclimate swings strained northern China
Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC
Cooler, drier, and flood-prone conditions after 800 CE made Yellow River crop and supply networks increasingly fragile.
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Late Tang hydroclimate swings strained northern China
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Models cover dry and humid extremes between 800 and 907 CE.
To explore the rapid decline of the Tang Dynasty, we evaluate a set of vulnerability models simulating food supply chains across the late Tang agricultural productivity zone during dry and humid extremes between 800 and 907 CE.
A total of 31 towns represents the Tang Dynasty sample.
A total of 31 towns represents the Tang Dynasty sample.
Key findings
After 800 CE the region shifted cooler and drier, with harvests often poor between 800 and about 840 CE, floods recorded more than 1500 times over the last millennium (up to three per year), a humid high-runoff pulse around 880–900 CE, then a sharp runoff and precipitation drop after 900 CE. Late Tang military sites sat near the 400 mm/year isohyet in drought- and flood-prone ground, while wheat and rice replaced more drought-tolerant millet.
Methodology
The authors combined a tree-ring Yellow River runoff reconstruction (800–907 CE) with a drought–flood vulnerability model, crop-suitability maps, and 53 least-cost food-supply networks across the Yellow River Loop.
Limitations
Network models cannot prove climate caused the 907 CE collapse; rebellion and war still matter. CHELSA climate fields are modern analogues, and documentary floods and harvest grades have uneven coverage.
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