Metacognition
Do beliefs about worrying come before anxiety, or after?
Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC
Unhelpful beliefs about one's own thinking predicted later anxiety a month on, and anxiety also predicted later beliefs, but neither was linked over time with depression in this low-symptom sample.
Study at a glance
- Design
- Cohort — Three online questionnaire waves at day 0, 30 and 60; cross-lagged panel structural equation model with metacognitive beliefs as a latent variable and anxiety and depression as observed variables.
- N
- N=265 · Participants who completed all three waves, pooled from two samples of 150 and 115 people.
- Population
- Mostly female, mostly student adults aged 18-74 recruited at the University of Manchester and via crowdsourcing
- Outcome
- Metacognitive beliefs (MCQ-30) and anxiety and depression symptoms (HADS) across three time points
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Key findings
All three measures were highly stable over time. Metacognitive beliefs at the first time point predicted anxiety 30 days later with a small effect (beta of 0.19), although beliefs at day 30 did not predict anxiety at day 60. Anxiety at day 30 in turn predicted metacognitive beliefs at day 60 with a similar small effect, suggesting a two-way relationship. There were no cross-lagged links between metacognitive beliefs and depression in either direction, and beliefs about uncontrollability and danger and need for control contributed most to the metacognition factor.
Methodology
The researchers followed two pooled samples of adults (150 and 115 people), mostly female university students, who completed questionnaires three times: at the start, after 30 days and after 60 days. Each time, participants reported metacognitive beliefs, such as that worry is uncontrollable or useful, and symptoms of anxiety and depression. A cross-lagged panel model tested whether beliefs at one time predicted symptoms at the next, and vice versa, while controlling for each variable's stability and for links measured at the same time.
Limitations
This is correlational panel data, so it shows temporal order, not causation; an unmeasured third factor could drive both beliefs and anxiety, and the authors say an experimental manipulation would be a stronger test. The sample was mainly female undergraduates with symptoms mostly below clinical cut-offs, so results may not apply to men, older adults or clinical patients. Low and stable depression scores make the null depression result hard to interpret, and a 30-day lag may not suit how depression develops. The metacognition-to-anxiety path appeared at only one of the two time lags.
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