Five ocean hotspots share more than just heat
Five Southern Hemisphere warming hotspots keep rapid SST rise, but acidification is unlikely to be the main 21st-century threat there.
Source
From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots
What they did
Mapped CMIP5 SST hotspots and used a NEMO earth-system run under RCP8.5 to compare SST, mixing, nitrate, primary production, oxygen, aragonite, and currents off eastern Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India, and Madagascar.
What they found
SST rise is unequivocal; other drivers are noisier; aragonite undersaturation is unlikely in these five hotspots this century; circulation shifts (especially the East Australian Current) are an extra stressor.
The limits
What it doesn't show
Does not measure local fisheries catch or community adaptation outcomes, and coarse models miss some tropical hotspot dynamics.
Key terms
- SST hotspot
- Marine region in the fastest-warming 10% of the ocean.
- CMIP5
- Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate-model archive.
- RCP8.5
- High greenhouse-gas concentration pathway used for 21st-century projections.
- Aragonite saturation (Ω)
- How close seawater is to dissolving aragonite shells and skeletons.
- Deoxygenation
- Loss of dissolved oxygen that stresses marine animals.
- GULLS
- Partnership on reducing vulnerability of marine-dependent coastal communities.
Flashcards
Research intelligence for this paper
See its role on concept claims, tensions it is part of, placement history, and related discoveries.
Quiz yourself
Focal hotspot coasts include:
Common questions
How many focal hotspots?
Five Southern Hemisphere regions.
CMIP5 models?
23 models.
Acidification threat there this century?
Unlikely to be major in the five foci.
Baseline window?
1990–2010 ± two SD.
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