2018 drought wilted about 11% of Central European forests
The 2018 heat-and-drought summer triggered early wilting on about 11% of Central European forest area, worst in Germany and Czechia, with greening still reduced the next spring.
Source
Large-scale early-wilting response of Central European forests to the 2018 extreme drought
Study at a glance
- Design
- Other — Remote-sensing map of 2018 early wilting from >300,000 classified pixels plus NDVI
- N
- ~21,524 km² (~10.8%) of mapped Central European forest; pixel-based map, not a person/tree cohort N
- Population
- Central European forest canopies in the 2018 extreme drought
- Outcome
- Spatial extent and climate drivers of early wilting and lingering 2019 greenness loss
Structured fields used in claim comparison tables when every cited study has a complete layer.
What they did
Authors trained random-forest models on >300,000 visually classified orthophoto pixels plus NDVI time series to map early wilting, then related patterns to 2018 climate anomalies, site factors, and May/June 2019 greenness.
What they found
Early wilting covered about 21,524 km² (10.8% of forest). Precipitation (negative) and temperature (positive) anomalies ranked among the top drivers. Wilted patches stayed less green in spring 2019 (NDVI gap +0.015 versus unaffected forest).
The limits
What it doesn't show
The map does not separate tree species mortality from reversible leaf browning, and 35–42% of deviance explained means many local factors remain unmeasured.
Key terms
- Early wilting
- Premature browning/leaf loss in the growing season, mapped here as a drought-stress response.
- NDVI
- Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, a satellite greenness proxy.
- 2018 Central European drought
- Record summer heat and moisture deficit exceeding even the 2003 drought.
- Random forest classifier
- Machine-learning model trained on labeled pixels to map wilted versus non-wilted forest.
- Following-spring greenness
- Whether 2019 May/June NDVI remained depressed in pixels that wilted in 2018.
Flashcards
Research intelligence for this paper
See its role on concept claims, tensions it is part of, placement history, and related discoveries.
Quiz yourself
2018 forest stress mapped here:
Common questions
How much forest wilted early in 2018?
About 11% (≈21,524 km²) of the mapped Central European forest.
Where was it worst?
Central and eastern Germany and the Czech Republic; lowest near the Alps.
Which climate anomalies mattered most?
2018 precipitation (less rain → more wilting) and temperature (hotter → more wilting).
Did canopies bounce back in 2019?
Not fully—wilted patches stayed less green the following spring.
More on Climate impacts