2018 drought wilted about 11% of Central European forests
The 2018 heat-and-drought summer triggered early wilting on about 11% of Central European forest area, worst in Germany and Czechia, with greening still reduced the next spring.
Source
Large-scale early-wilting response of Central European forests to the 2018 extreme drought
Study at a glance
- Design
- Other — Remote-sensing map of 2018 early wilting from >300,000 classified pixels plus NDVI
- N
- ~21,524 km² (~10.8%) of mapped Central European forest; pixel-based map, not a person/tree cohort N
- Population
- Central European forest canopies in the 2018 extreme drought
- Outcome
- Spatial extent and climate drivers of early wilting and lingering 2019 greenness loss
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Inspect source passages
2018 drought wilted about 11% of Central European forests
These passages occur verbatim in the stored paper text. They support the points listed below; they do not verify every statement in the explanation.
Early wilting was present in about 11% of investigated Central European forests.
Early wilting was present in about 11% of the Central European forests investigated.
May/June NDVI difference increased by 0.015 from 2018 to 2019 for wilted versus non-wilted patches.
On average, the May/June NDVI difference between forest patches affected by early wilting and non‐affected patches increased by 0.015 from 2018 to 2019.
What they did
Authors trained random-forest models on >300,000 visually classified orthophoto pixels plus NDVI time series to map early wilting, then related patterns to 2018 climate anomalies, site factors, and May/June 2019 greenness.
What they found
Early wilting covered about 21,524 km² (10.8% of forest). Precipitation (negative) and temperature (positive) anomalies ranked among the top drivers. Wilted patches stayed less green in spring 2019 (NDVI gap +0.015 versus unaffected forest).
The limits
What it doesn't show
The map does not separate tree species mortality from reversible leaf browning, and 35–42% of deviance explained means many local factors remain unmeasured.
Key terms
- Early wilting
- Premature browning/leaf loss in the growing season, mapped here as a drought-stress response.
- NDVI
- Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, a satellite greenness proxy.
- 2018 Central European drought
- Record summer heat and moisture deficit exceeding even the 2003 drought.
- Random forest classifier
- Machine-learning model trained on labeled pixels to map wilted versus non-wilted forest.
- Following-spring greenness
- Whether 2019 May/June NDVI remained depressed in pixels that wilted in 2018.
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Quiz yourself
2018 forest stress mapped here:
Common questions
How much forest wilted early in 2018?
About 11% (≈21,524 km²) of the mapped Central European forest.
Where was it worst?
Central and eastern Germany and the Czech Republic; lowest near the Alps.
Which climate anomalies mattered most?
2018 precipitation (less rain → more wilting) and temperature (hotter → more wilting).
Did canopies bounce back in 2019?
Not fully—wilted patches stayed less green the following spring.
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