Alpine birds lose range except water pipit
By 2041–2070, rock ptarmigan suitable area falls about 36% on average, while water pipit range is nearly stable.
Source
Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions
What they did
Fitted MaxEnt models for four Alpine birds using citizen-science records from seven countries, then projected 2041–2070 climates from four GCMs under SSP585.
What they found
Mean contractions of 35.7% (ptarmigan), 26.1% (accentor), and 24.5% (snowfinch); water pipit +2.1%; temperature was the top predictor; UKESM gave the harshest losses.
The limits
What it doesn't show
Does not track actual dispersal, hunting, or land-abandonment, and a worst-case SSP585 is not a prediction of policy.
Key terms
- Climate refugia
- Places that stay or become suitable as climate changes.
- In-situ refugia
- Currently occupied areas expected to remain suitable.
- Ex-situ refugia
- Areas not now occupied that may become suitable later.
- MaxEnt
- Maximum-entropy species-distribution model for presence-only data.
- SSP585
- High-emissions shared socioeconomic pathway used as a pessimistic case.
- SDM
- Species distribution model relating occurrences to environment.
Flashcards
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Ptarmigan average suitable-area change:
Common questions
Species?
Rock ptarmigan, water pipit, alpine accentor, snowfinch.
Ptarmigan loss?
Average −35.7% suitable area.
Records collated?
127,309 occurrence records.
Horizon?
2041–2070.
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