CMIP6 sea-level sensitivity lags observations
CMIP6/ISMIP6 transient sea-level sensitivity is ~30% below the historical “all but glaciers” rate, mainly because Antarctic ice-sheet models barely respond to warming.
Source
The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models
Study at a glance
- Design
- Computational / modelling — Transient sea-level sensitivity from weighted CMIP6/ISMIP6 components vs AR6 historical rates
- N
- Multimodel CMIP6 and ice emulators; not a single sample N
- Population
- Global mean and component sea-level contributions under transient warming
- Outcome
- Model TSLS ~30% below historical all-but-glacier rate, mainly from weak Antarctic response
Structured fields used in claim comparison tables when every cited study has a complete layer.
Inspect source passages
CMIP6 sea-level sensitivity lags observations
These passages occur verbatim in the stored paper text. They support the points listed below; they do not verify every statement in the explanation.
About 90% of sea-level rise since 1900 is associated with anthropogenic warming.
Finally, we associate about 90% of SLR since the start of the twentieth century with anthropogenic global warming.
Why is glacier TSLS a poor century-scale metric?
The TSLS is higher for the first half of the twenty‐first century because, as they melt, the GIC area declines and hence has less potential to contribute mass to sea‐level change.
What they did
Authors computed transient sea-level sensitivity (TSLS: mm/yr per K of GMST) for steric, Greenland, West/East Antarctic, glacier, and GMSL pieces from weighted CMIP6 and ice emulators, then compared with AR6 historical budget rates.
What they found
Steric TSLS is 1.5±0.2 mm/yr/K (obs 1.4±0.5). Greenland is 0.8±0.2. EAIS is slightly negative (−0.1±0.2). Full GMSL TSLS is 5.3±1.0 mm/yr/K for 2016–2050 vs 3.0±0.4 after 2050. Historical all-but-glacier sensitivity (3.1±0.4) is ~30% above models; AIS observations are +0.4±0.2 vs near-zero modeled WAIS/EAIS dynamics.
The limits
What it doesn't show
TSLS is not equilibrium sea-level commitment after 2100. Glacier TSLS is non-stationary. Ice emulators inherit ISMIP6’s weak marine-ice dynamics and present-day zero-trend design.
Key terms
- TSLS
- Transient sea-level sensitivity: change in SLR rate per K of GMST.
- Steric sea level
- Ocean thermal expansion (and salinity) contribution.
- ISMIP6
- Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project used to force AR6 ice emulators.
- All but GIC
- Sea-level budget after removing glaciers and ice caps.
- GMST
- Global mean surface temperature used as the TSLS x-axis.
Flashcards
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Quiz yourself
CMIP6 2051–2100 steric TSLS is about:
Common questions
Which component matches observations best?
Steric expansion, ~1.5 vs 1.4 mm/yr/K.
Where is the model–data gap?
Antarctic ice sheet, especially WAIS/Peninsula dynamics.
Does GMSL TSLS stay constant this century?
No: 5.3 mm/yr/K before 2050 vs 3.0 after, largely from shrinking glaciers.
How much 20th-century SLR do they tie to warming?
About 90%.
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