Sea level
CMIP6 sea-level sensitivity lags observations
Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC
CMIP6/ISMIP6 transient sea-level sensitivity is ~30% below the historical “all but glaciers” rate, mainly because Antarctic ice-sheet models barely respond to warming.
Study at a glance
- Design
- Computational / modelling — Transient sea-level sensitivity from weighted CMIP6/ISMIP6 components vs AR6 historical rates
- N
- Multimodel CMIP6 and ice emulators; not a single sample N
- Population
- Global mean and component sea-level contributions under transient warming
- Outcome
- Model TSLS ~30% below historical all-but-glacier rate, mainly from weak Antarctic response
Structured fields used in claim comparison tables when every cited study has a complete layer.
Key findings
Steric TSLS is 1.5±0.2 mm/yr/K (obs 1.4±0.5). Greenland is 0.8±0.2. EAIS is slightly negative (−0.1±0.2). Full GMSL TSLS is 5.3±1.0 mm/yr/K for 2016–2050 vs 3.0±0.4 after 2050. Historical all-but-glacier sensitivity (3.1±0.4) is ~30% above models; AIS observations are +0.4±0.2 vs near-zero modeled WAIS/EAIS dynamics.
Methodology
Authors computed transient sea-level sensitivity (TSLS: mm/yr per K of GMST) for steric, Greenland, West/East Antarctic, glacier, and GMSL pieces from weighted CMIP6 and ice emulators, then compared with AR6 historical budget rates.
Limitations
TSLS is not equilibrium sea-level commitment after 2100. Glacier TSLS is non-stationary. Ice emulators inherit ISMIP6’s weak marine-ice dynamics and present-day zero-trend design.
How this study connects
Role on claims
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This library holds 3 empirical papers on sea level with measured outcomes rather than reviews.
Evidence for the claim as stated.
CMIP6/ISMIP6 transient sea-level sensitivity is ~30% below the historical “all but glaciers” rate, mainly because Antarctic ice-sheet models barely respond to warming.
Evidence for the claim as stated.
Weighted CMIP6 plus ice emulators give steric transient sea-level sensitivity of 1.5±0.2 mm/yr/K (observations 1.4±0.5) and Greenland 0.8±0.2; East Antarctic ice-sheet TSLS is slightly negative (−0.1±0.2). Full GMSL TSLS is 5.3±1.0 mm/yr/K for 2016–2050 versus 3.0±0.4 after 2050. Historical all-but-glacier sensitivity (3.1±0.4) sits ~30% above the models; observed Antarctic dynamics are +0.4±0.2 mm/yr/K against near-zero modelled WAIS/EAIS dynamics.
Evidence for the claim as stated.
CMIP can match one budget and miss another. Steric TSLS (1.5±0.2) sits on observations (1.4±0.5), yet historical all-but-glacier sea-level sensitivity is ~30% above the models and Antarctic dynamics are observed, not modelled. Downstream, QQM-corrected NEX-GDDP members intensify Nile flood peaks while the same CMIP6 generation still disagrees on the sign of mean Nile rain. Agreement of a multimodel mean on ETCCDI sensitivity does not license treating every CMIP-forced hydrology run as an observation.
Evidence for the claim as stated.
Open questions
Tensions this paper is part of
From concept pages' “where studies disagree.” Disagreement means the same question; scope means different assays, populations, or outcomes.
CMIP can match one budget and miss another. Steric TSLS (1.5±0.2) sits on observations (1.4±0.5), yet historical all-but-glacier sea-level sensitivity is ~30% above the models and Antarctic dynamics are observed, not modelled. Downstream, QQM-corrected NEX-GDDP members intensify Nile flood peaks while the same CMIP6 generation still disagrees on the sign of mean Nile rain. Agreement of a multimodel mean on ETCCDI sensitivity does not license treating every CMIP-forced hydrology run as an observation.
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