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Sea level

How dams fingerprint regional sea-level change

Hawley WB, Hay CC, Mitrovica JX, et al. · Earth's future · 2020

Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC

Impounding reservoir water lowers global mean sea level but can raise relative sea level within about 2000 km of large dams.

Study at a glance

Design
Computational / modelling — GRD sea-level fingerprints of GRanD reservoir impoundment plus seepage and future dams
N
N=6329 · 6,329 post-1900 GRanD reservoirs (5,979 km³ total volume)
Population
Global artificial reservoirs in the GRanD database (1900–2011) and projected Zarfl dams
Outcome
Global mean and spatially variable relative sea-level change from water impoundment

Structured fields used in claim comparison tables when every cited study has a complete layer.

Key findings

GRanD volume of 5,979 km³ equals a 16.6 mm GMSL fall (0.15 mm/yr); with seepage the drop is 21.8 mm by 2011 and 30.1 mm by 2040. Nearby relative sea level can rise ~40 mm (Manicouagan), opposite the global mean.

Methodology

Authors computed yearly gravitational-rotational-deformational sea-level fingerprints for GRanD reservoirs (1900–2011), added seepage, and projected Zarfl hydropower dams to 2040.

Limitations

GRanD holds only ~72% of WRD volume with unknown geography for the rest; future volumes are inferred from hydropower capacity, and 3-D Earth structure is neglected (~1% fingerprint error).

How this study connects

Role on claims

Each row is a claim on a concept or method page where this paper supports, challenges, or qualifies the statement. Roles are hand-checked — not a model guess.

  • SupportsSea levelconcept

    This library holds 3 empirical papers on sea level with measured outcomes rather than reviews.

    Evidence for the claim as stated.

  • SupportsSea levelconcept

    Impounding reservoir water lowers global mean sea level but can raise relative sea level within about 2000 km of large dams.

    Evidence for the claim as stated.

  • SupportsSea levelconcept

    A reef isostasy study or a CMIP transient fingerprint is not a local flood map.

    Evidence for the claim as stated.

  • SupportsSatellite Altimetrymethod

    GRanD reservoirs hold 5,979 km³, equal to a 16.6 mm global-mean sea-level fall (0.15 mm/yr) for 1900–2011; with seepage the drop is 21.8 mm by 2011 and 30.1 mm by 2040. Nearby relative sea level can rise ~40 mm (Manicouagan), opposite the global mean. This is a GRD fingerprint calculation, not an altimeter time series. GRanD holds only ~72% of World Register of Dams volume; 3-D Earth structure is neglected (~1% fingerprint error).

    Evidence for the claim as stated.

  • SupportsSatellite Altimetrymethod

    Only two papers actually confront an altimeter product. The Gulf Stream jump is a hosing-model event with an AVISO northward-shift hint near separation; lead times may differ because the Florida Current is 14% weak and the DWBC 36% strong versus reanalysis. The dam paper is a mass-fingerprint budget term with no altimeter. Combining ‘AVISO shows the Stream jumped’ with ‘dams lowered GMSL 16.6 mm’ as two altimetry results is a category error.

    Evidence for the claim as stated.

Open questions

Tensions this paper is part of

From concept pages' “where studies disagree.” Disagreement means the same question; scope means different assays, populations, or outcomes.

  • Scope difference — different assays, populations, or outcomes

    SupportsSea level

    A reef isostasy study or a CMIP transient fingerprint is not a local flood map.

  • Scope difference — different assays, populations, or outcomes

    Only two papers actually confront an altimeter product. The Gulf Stream jump is a hosing-model event with an AVISO northward-shift hint near separation; lead times may differ because the Florida Current is 14% weak and the DWBC 36% strong versus reanalysis. The dam paper is a mass-fingerprint budget term with no altimeter. Combining ‘AVISO shows the Stream jumped’ with ‘dams lowered GMSL 16.6 mm’ as two altimetry results is a category error.

    Also on this tension

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Same topic cluster — not a recommendation engine.