Hydrology
North Atlantic SSTs lead UK summer droughts
Open access · cc by · source: Europe PMC
A North Atlantic freshwater–SST pathway leads UK summer rainfall and streamflow droughts by about 1.5 years.
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North Atlantic SSTs lead UK summer droughts
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The average lag from winter subpolar cold anomaly to next-year UK summer hydrology is about 1.5 years.
While the exact timing of the onset of the northward NAC shift pattern can vary depending on the duration of the cold and fresh anomaly in the subpolar region, the average lag between the subpolar cold anomaly in winter of the previous year and its impact on UK hydrology in the summer of the following year is ~1.5 years.
Correlations were computed over 1950–2020.
To understand the statistical relationships between SSTs patterns and UK hydrometeorology (SPI3 and SSI3) and other oceanic and circulation indices, we employ the Pearson correlation method over the common period of 1950—2020.
Key findings
Winter SCA and summer NAC SST patterns correlate with UK precipitation and with streamflow except in groundwater-dominated southeast catchments, at ~1.5-year lag. Extreme drought years share a poleward-shifted jet, a northward NAC, and a preceding winter SST tripole tied to subpolar freshening.
Methodology
Authors correlated 1950–2020 HadISST-based subpolar-cold-anomaly and North Atlantic Current indices with UK SPI3 and catchment SSI3, then traced the ocean–atmosphere chain through four extreme summers (1976, 1995, 2018, 2022) using ERA5 winds and salinity.
Limitations
Only four extreme case years support the full salinity-to-drought chain, correlations can be non-stationary, and southeast groundwater catchments do not show the streamflow link, so this is not yet an operational forecast system.
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